On the Table · VC
Adversarial Diligence · Pre-Decision

Before conviction becomes capital, put the deal on trial.

A pre-decision red team memo for investors and acquirers. You name a deal you are seriously considering. We return an independent, adversarial second opinion, built from the dated public record.

Your AI agrees with you. Ours is required to disagree.

Request a MemoRead a Sample Verdict

Fig. 1 · The RoomSix Seats · One Deal
01 02 03 04 05 06 THE DEAL
Eight QuestionsArgued on the Record

01The problem

A second opinion you control is not a second opinion.

Every investor now has a research chatbot open, and it is very good at building the case for a deal you already like. The obvious fix is to prompt it for the bear case. But a bear case you commission from your own AI answers to you: if it stings, you can soften the prompt, run it again, or close the tab, and no one will ever know.

Dissent only counts when it has standing: rules that cannot be bent mid-argument, a checker who does not report to you, and a record that cannot be edited after the fact. Nothing in the current stack provides that.


02When to use it

After the deal has momentum. Before it has money.

Use it after a deal has a sponsor and genuine interest inside your firm, and before the investment committee turns that interest into conviction. That is the last cheap moment to be wrong. Every week after it, the same doubts get more expensive: diligence dollars go out, the founder's story hardens, and momentum starts doing the arguing.

The point is not to replace diligence. The point is to aim it before you spend it.


03The seats

A seat is a reviewer with a fixed mandate.

Six sit at every table:

The OperatorArgues the best version of the deal. The table needs a designated optimist, or it is a firing squad.
The SkepticHunts for the fatal flaw: where does this die?
The Customer-Truth AdvisorSpeaks only for the customer. Painkiller or vitamin, stated or revealed.
The Growth PartnerTests whether the math works and the team can execute.
The Timing AnalystAsks whether the wave is real, and whether it is now.
The Red TeamAssigned to attack whatever the rest start to agree on.

Each seat reads the same evidence file without seeing the others' notes. Then they argue, on the record, and every seat must name the opposing argument it cannot beat. A managing adjudication weighs the surviving arguments, never the votes.


04The questions

Eight questions the deal must survive.

Together the seats must answer them on the record, each question owned by the seat whose mandate is to press it:

01Why could this be big?
02What are we pretending not to see?
03Does anyone really care?
04Is this meaningfully different?
05Who already owns the customer's default?
06Can they actually execute?
07Why now?
08What would make all of us wrong?

Then the memo has to survive an audit it did not write: a second AI from a different company checks every source, every date, and every quote before the memo can ship. Every factual claim carries a link and a date. What survives is not an answer. It is a verdict.

Why this is not another research tool →


05The verdict

Not a summary. A posture.

GO
GO WITH EXPERIMENTS
NO-GO AS FRAMED
CANNOT READ RESPONSIBLY
Every memo ends in one of these four calls. Each verdict states: a confidence number, the named experiments with kill thresholds that condition it, the strongest surviving argument against it, printed in full, and the two or three observable facts that would change the call. And every memo covers the ground an investment committee would demand: the category and who else is in it, the position the company can actually carve and for whom, and the size of the prize, all from dated sources.

06The proof

Tested where the outcome is already known.

These are backtests. We take a famous deal, freeze the clock the day before the money moved, and hand the table only what was public before that date. Not one source in the file postdates the decision. Then the seats argue it out as if the wire were tomorrow. Here is what the table said:

The claim is not foresight. Backtests are run under a hard rule that no source may postdate the decision date, and each memo carries that caveat in print. The claim is that the evidence was on the table. Backtests do not predict the future. They prove the process.


07See a sample memo

Read one end to end: the verdict, the dissent printed in full, and every claim carrying a dated source. Both are method demonstrations, not predictions.


08Put a company on the table

Bring us a deal you are seriously considering.

No NDA, you send us nothing. You get the full memo, built from the dated public record: $2,500, waived for a small number of founding readers in exchange for twenty minutes telling us what is missing.

Prefer not to name a live deal? Give us one you already decided, yours or anyone's, and we will show you what the table would have said the day before the wire.

Every memo ends with the experiments only insider access can run. Running them is the engagement that follows, if the memo earns it.

Name a company · steve@onthetable.vc


09After the memo

The memo is the output. The desk is the product.

For retained firms we build a private evidence desk: your thesis, your process, your past deals and passes, the lines you have decided you will not cross, indexed into a siloed library that never touches anyone else's. Over time the table stops arguing against the public record alone and starts arguing against your own history and your own rules: the pass that got away, the pattern you swore you would not repeat.

That library compounds with every memo. And it is yours: if you leave, it leaves with you.