01The problem
A second opinion you control is not a second opinion.
Every investor now has a research chatbot open, and it is very good at building the case for a deal you already like. The obvious fix is to prompt it for the bear case. But a bear case you commission from your own AI answers to you: if it stings, you can soften the prompt, run it again, or close the tab, and no one will ever know.
Dissent only counts when it has standing: rules that cannot be bent mid-argument, a checker who does not report to you, and a record that cannot be edited after the fact. Nothing in the current stack provides that.
02When to use it
After the deal has momentum. Before it has money.
Use it after a deal has a sponsor and genuine interest inside your firm, and before the investment committee turns that interest into conviction. That is the last cheap moment to be wrong. Every week after it, the same doubts get more expensive: diligence dollars go out, the founder's story hardens, and momentum starts doing the arguing.
The point is not to replace diligence. The point is to aim it before you spend it.
03The seats
A seat is a reviewer with a fixed mandate.
Six sit at every table:
Each seat reads the same evidence file without seeing the others' notes. Then they argue, on the record, and every seat must name the opposing argument it cannot beat. A managing adjudication weighs the surviving arguments, never the votes.
04The questions
Eight questions the deal must survive.
Together the seats must answer them on the record, each question owned by the seat whose mandate is to press it:
Then the memo has to survive an audit it did not write: a second AI from a different company checks every source, every date, and every quote before the memo can ship. Every factual claim carries a link and a date. What survives is not an answer. It is a verdict.
05The verdict
Not a summary. A posture.
06The proof
Tested where the outcome is already known.
These are backtests. We take a famous deal, freeze the clock the day before the money moved, and hand the table only what was public before that date. Not one source in the file postdates the decision. Then the seats argue it out as if the wire were tomorrow. Here is what the table said:
The day before Sequoia wired $100 million at a $1 billion valuation, the consensus said video conferencing was solved and crowded. Using only sources dated before that day, 114 of them, linked, the table named the one number that decided the case.
The day before the $400 million round at a $4 billion valuation, built from 64 dated public sources that all existed before the wire.
The claim is not foresight. Backtests are run under a hard rule that no source may postdate the decision date, and each memo carries that caveat in print. The claim is that the evidence was on the table. Backtests do not predict the future. They prove the process.
07See a sample memo
Read one end to end: the verdict, the dissent printed in full, and every claim carrying a dated source. Both are method demonstrations, not predictions.
08Put a company on the table
Bring us a deal you are seriously considering.
No NDA, you send us nothing. You get the full memo, built from the dated public record: $2,500, waived for a small number of founding readers in exchange for twenty minutes telling us what is missing.
Prefer not to name a live deal? Give us one you already decided, yours or anyone's, and we will show you what the table would have said the day before the wire.
Every memo ends with the experiments only insider access can run. Running them is the engagement that follows, if the memo earns it.
09After the memo
The memo is the output. The desk is the product.
For retained firms we build a private evidence desk: your thesis, your process, your past deals and passes, the lines you have decided you will not cross, indexed into a siloed library that never touches anyone else's. Over time the table stops arguing against the public record alone and starts arguing against your own history and your own rules: the pass that got away, the pattern you swore you would not repeat.
That library compounds with every memo. And it is yours: if you leave, it leaves with you.